In addition, bluffing on the river can pick up some pots for us that we might not otherwise win. However, what is the optimal bluffing frequency on the river?
Pot Odds and Bet Sizing
The optimal bluffing frequency will depend upon the pot size and the size of our bluff. In a normal pot odds situation, you would like to size our bet so that an opponent will be tempted to make an incorrect call.
For example, if there is a flush draw on board with one card to come, we want to make a bet that will offer our opponent pot odds of slightly less than 4-to-1, since he needs 4-to-1 odds for the call to be correct.
Calculating Optimal Bluffing Frequency
In the case of bluffing on the river, the simple but yet difficult answer is that you want to size your bet so that the pot odds converge with the odds that you are bluffing. We'll try and explain, please don't shoot yourself yet.
For example, if there is $300 in the pot after you bet $100 on the river, your opponent needs to catch you bluffing more than 25 percent of the time for his call to be correct. (Since the pot odds you're laying him/her are 3:1.)
Therefore, you should make sure you are bluffing 25 percent of the time when you make this bet. To do so, on the turn, calculate how many river cards make your hand. Then, add additional cards that you will bluff on, such that 75 percent of the cards you will bet on are winners and 25 percent are bluffs.
If you make it so that fewer than 25 percent of your bets are bluffs, your opponent will be correct to always call. If you make it so that more than 25 percent are bluffs, he will be correct to always fold. Optimal strategy is to hit the 25 percent (or whatever the odds dictate) exactly.
On the other hand, if the opponent calls too rarely you'll gain from bluffing a little ofter. If he/she calls too much, you'll gain from having fewer bluiffs in your hand range on the river.
It's really simple, but yet complex. You have to make an effort. You like that, since you're a true poker lover.
Comments on this Article
CRex (Jun 23, 2010)
I think you got it backwards!!!
If you don't bluff enough, opponent exploits you by FOLDING, not Calling. You got it backwards. :P
Alan Black (May 07, 2010)
There is so much more to bluffing successfully than assigning random cards according to Game Theory: logic of the hand, your style and image, your opponents' style
Javy Lopez (Feb 27, 2009)
This is so false. Learn basic math/poker.
DON'T READ THIS. IT'S CRAP.
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