My November Nine Predictions Revisited
A couple of days prior to the Main Event, I made four predictions regarding the November Nine final table. I watched the event Saturday and Monday and even last night on ESPN. It was a very entertaining final table leading up to heads-up play. Heads-up, not so much. In either event, here is how I did in my November Nine predictions.
Prediction #1 - Michael Mizrachi Finishes 5th - Result: Win
At the dinner break, this prediction looked to be shot all to hell as Mizrachi was the chip leader. Then, Mizrachi did what he does and applies the pressure. Unfortunately, his luck didn't hold. He made a light call with A-8 against A-K and lost and then he called an all-in with pocket threes against A-Q to make himself short. His gambling nature bit him in the ass when his Q-8 flopped top pair. Unfortunately for him, Jonathan Duhamel had pocket aces and was waiting for him. The result? 5th place. Not quite how I envisioned it happening, but 5th place nonetheless.
Prediction #2 - John Dolan Potential Flameout Victim - Result: Win
John Dolan's aggression was a prime candidate for a flameout. However, something happened on the way to November. He tightened up too much. He severely misplayed the jacks vs. A-10 hand where Joseph Cheong caught the nut flush. Otherwise, he seemed to have lost the "reckless aggression" that helped to get him there. Changing your game plan to something that is not working is worse than using a game plan that is has a flaw. In either event, he finished in 6th, which is where I expected him to finish.
Prediction #3 - John Racener Wins Main Event - Result: Push
Yes, John Racener lost. The reason I called a push on this is due to the fact that I predicted the heads-up match accurately. I really wish Racener would have played better heads-up. I would have rather seen him push light and get unlucky than be chipped away like he was a super-nit. Of course, he still took home over $5.5 Million, which is more money than any of us will ever see.
Prediction #4 - Ratings Will Drop - Result: Win
I declared last year that if Ivey could not draw ratings, then the November Nine concept was practically doomed. Then ESPN had the bright idea to put the Main Event on at 10 p.m. this past Tuesday. The result? The lowest rating since before the November Nine was instituted. Overall, ratings were down 26% year over year. Only 1.1 Million homes tuned in for the broadcast. The 2007 final table with Jerry Yang drew 1.25 Million. Overall viewership went down by half a Million viewers. Part of this is blamed on the time slot, but remember that ratings slipped last year with Ivey at the final table. Excitement wise, the November Nine excels. Ratings wise, the November Nine concept needs to be reevaluated.
All in all, this year's set of predictions turned out pretty well. Sadly, the ending of the WSOP Main Event means the official end to the WSOP season. It has been a great year with a lot of great wins by deserving champions. Of course, they will all be back in 2011 and all will be looking to make history at the 2011 World Series of Poker.