The nuts in Omaha with dangerous draws?
I play pot limit Omaha on low stakes. Four or more players see the flop all the time, and so do I. In this hand I hit the nut straight on the turn, but with three opponents, a flush draw on the board and a lot of action, I still hesitate to call all in.
What do you guys think about this situation?
Thanks for an interesting question. The situation you describe is very common in Omaha. You hit the nuts on a board with dangerous draws out. Let's take a closer look at the hand.
We have a four way pot with a raise a call and a re-raise when the action comes to you. You have the nut straight and can be pretty sure that at least one of your opponents have the same straight. You can also be almost certain you will have a four way all-in if you decide to play. The player in the first position is already all-in, the second player is pot committed and the third one has showed that he's not going to fold.
This means that you need to dodge a flush draw and possible full houses in order to probably get a split. But you also have a re-draw to a better straight, if a ten comes that's not a spade.
You will need to pay $23 with the chance to win a total of $10 (already in the pot) + $7 (Player B) + $16 (Player C) + $23 (Player E) + $23 (you) = $79. The most likely is that you have at least one other player with the same straight. Meaning that you pay $23 to make a total profit of $79/2 - $23 = $17. Off course you don't have the time to do this math when the clock is ticking, but it is good to have some grasp at the figures when we analyze the hand.
Looking only at these figures you should probably fold here. There are nine cards that will give a possible flush and 12 cards that will create a full house (but some of these cards are most likely in the hands of your opponents). This means that you maybe have 40-50% chance to win maybe half of the pot.
But there are other factors to consider. It is very unlikely that all players have the straight, which means that you have the chance to win a side pot even if one of the draws hit. You also have three outs that give you a chance to scoop the whole pot.
With all this taken in to consideration I would argue that you should go all-in here. But if you were in the same situation on the flop or if the stacks were much deeper I would argue for a fold.
Good luck at the tables.
/Team Poker Junkie