The example in the previous article on pot odds was quite simple. Our decision would end the betting right there, no matter if we called or folded. The opponent was all in.
If instead the opponent had another $1500 left in his stack, the situation would be very different.
Pot odds when there is more betting to come
If there are $80 in the pot and the opponent bets $10, just like in the previous example, your pot odds are still 9 to 1. Your winning chances are still 9 to 1, but only if you get to see both the turn card and the river card.
In this example we may have to put more money in the pot on later streets before the hand is over.
Imagine if we don't make our winning hand on the flop and then the opponent puts in a big bet on the turn. Now you'd have to put in more chips for the chance to make your winning hand. The initial $10 weren't enough, and effectively your pot odds have changed.
In our example, if you call the $10 bet on the flop, there are $100 in the pot when the turn card comes. Let's say you miss your hand and the opponent bets another $100.
Effective odds
We assume that you win the pot if you make your hand on the river, otherwise you lose it. We also assume that the opponent will not pay off your river bet if you make your hand.
In this case, you put in a total of $110 to win $190. The effective pot odds are slightly less than 2:1, which is way too low to motivate a call with your 9:1 winning odds.
When there's more betting to come, the direct pot odds are not enough, you also need to factor in what will happen later on.
Poker lingo: Pot odds modified for further action are often called Effective Odds. They show what it will actually cost you to win the pot.
Of course, if your odds for making a winning hand directly on the next card equal or overtrump the direct pot odds, you can call regardless of potential further betting. In this case your call has long term profitability regardless of what happens on later streets.
For example, if you're on the flop with a nut flush draw and the opponent lays you pot odds 10 to 1, you can call and hope to make the flush on the turn (winning odds around 4:1). If you miss and he bets big on the river, you still made a long term profit with your flop call.
Implied odds
In the example above, we made an important assumption: the opponent wouldn't pay off your river bet if you make you winning hand.
In real life this is often unrealistic. Often enough, you can hope to make some more money when you make your hand. This effect balances the effective odds described above, and could make your call correct again.
Read our article on implied odds for more information about this important concept!
/Charlie River
-
Comment