Flush Draw All-In Against my Better Hand
Hi, I was playing a re-buy tournament and was eliminated early on (didn't want to rebuy). Ok so a low stack goes all in with A9 suited. I raise it with AK since I am early position and want to push other players out.
The BB calls with KT suited (same suit as the all in from low stack). This move already puzzles me. In my opinion BB with KT suited against a re-raise pre-flop is a pretty bad move already.
The flop shows J65 with two cards of the suit that BB needs and he pushes all in right away. From observing his play style earlier I don't think he got any pair on the flop. So I call. At this stage I should be around 65/35% ahead to him if not more. The turn gives him the flush.
I don't think I should have folded my AK to him on the flop, but am just wondering what you guys think about this.
It's hard to give any final evaluation without knowing your chip stacks. Since it's a rebuy, if you're pretty short stacked, his pre-flop call could be explainable. Your raise doesn't mean that much if your stack is on the short side. If both your stacks are deep, his call is very questionable, of course.
On the flop, as you say, he's got around 35% against you, and if he's getting 2:1 pot odds, it would make his move easily correct. Of course, if the short stack holds two cards in the same suit, his winning chances are much smaller, but at the time he doesn't know this.
Should you fold your two overcards against his all-in? Again this depends on our stacks. How much would you have left if you fold, and how big are the blinds?
Without this information, I'd say that your call is probably okay. It can't be very wrong.
Tommy Angelo said a smart thing in his book Elements of Poker: The marginal situations are the ones we discuss the most. At the same time, those are the ones where our decision matter the least. Since the situation is marginal, the expectations of different decisions are close, per definition.
Bluff you later,
The Poker Junkie Team