Friday, May 25, 2012 Five Easy 2012 WSOP Predictions
Year of the Lamb is 2011, not 2012.
It's hard to believe it's been a year since we were contemplating the effects of Black Friday on the WSOP, but the 2012 World Series of Poker is here again and kicks off on Sunday.
As is tradition, Poker Junkie blogger Compncards is back with his predictions.
Last year, Compncards predicted WSOP attendance would suffer - and then it proceeded to be the biggest WSOP ever.
Will he do better with this year's picks? Here we go ...
1) Phil Hellmuth Will Win Bracelet #12 This Year
I'm going to keep predicting this every year until it happens, dammit!
Seriously, did anyone think Hellmuth wouldn't walk away with at least one bracelet last year after being in position three times to do so? Not I said the fly.
My only concern over this is whether Phil will press too much this summer. Will he be under extra pressure to perform? Will he play too many events and suffer burnout? Were his performances in mixed games last year a fluke?
Personally, I couldn't care less what event he gets #12 in just as long as he gets there. Part of me would like to see it happen in a Stud event so I can quit betting against him in Stud events.
2) If Ivey Plays, He Will At Least Tie Johnny Moss
Tied for fifth on the all-time WSOP bracelet list is Erik Seidel and Phil Ivey at eight bracelets. Johhny Moss is fourth with nine
Last year, Ivey decided to skip the WSOP over "Full Tilt's failure to pay players." I called bullshit on this many months ago, but that was last year and the question now is whether Ivey will compete.
There's nothing to suggest that he's going to skip the series this year, but my gut tells me that if he shows up, he will play a reduced schedule much like he did in 2007 when he only played a handful of events.
Of course, as Ivey has already proven earlier this year, he doesn't have to play that many events to still win. When he only played a limited schedule in 2007, he still made two final tables and just barely missed out on a bracelet after finishing runner-up to Chris Reslock in the Stud World Championship.
If Ivey plays a solid schedule, he wins #8.
3) Ben Lamb Struggles in 2012
Ben Lamb had a very blessed 2011. Everything went right when it had to, except for K-J.
This is a new year, and while Lamb did not take down the Main Event he will be the target of every grinder and their monkey.
Also, it's rare that someone has the killer year that Lamb did in 2011 and comes back to dominate the next year.
I set the over/under for Lamb this year at 3 smallish cashes during the WSOP.
4) Overall Attendance Grows But Some Events Will Suffer
After looking at the schedule and considering the landscape of poker at present, I see attendance being a mixed bag at the WSOP.
Will attendance go up overall? Yes. It has to based on the number of events and the fact that No-Limit Hold'em will draw.
However, I think you will see drop-offs for up to 25% of the events. With that said, I don't believe you'll see a significant drop-off for any event in regards to percentage of field size outside of the Poker Player's Championship.
I don't see the $1,500 Limit Omaha Hi-Lo Event breaking last year's record. Stud events will struggle I think.
I do predict the Seniors Event to break its own record from last year.
Also, I'm setting the line for the Poker Player's Championship at 100 - and even then I am leaning to the under.
5) Main Event Attendance Will Shrink - A Little
I don't see Main Event numbers going up from last year. I also don't see them shrinking dramatically.
I think we lose about 300-600 players. I'm putting the number right now at 6,275. WSOP officials will tell you to take the over.
Within the first couple of weeks we will get an idea of what the trends will be for the WSOP just as we did last year. By and large, I see the event being a success and enjoyed more than ever by participants.
I don't think you will see records broken every time you turn around like last year, but it will still be a very solid year.